Better Riding: Confidence vs Competence

Above: What’s the worst that could happen? Is this rider on the right line and at the right speed for the corner? Try assessing your own ride next time.

In this instalment of Better Riding we explore a topic that’s rarely discussed but deeply influential: cognitive bias — the psychological quirks that shape how we ride, learn, and improve.

Joining me is Mark McVeigh, a professional rider coach, ex-MotoGP engineer, and founder of motoDNA. With over 10,000 riders trained, Mark brings a wealth of experience and a unique perspective on how our minds can be both our greatest asset and our biggest obstacle on two wheels.

Read on for a precis of the accompanying video or watch the whole thing here:

Better Riding: Confidence vs Competence

In this instalment, we explore cognitive bias - the psychological quirks that shape how we ride, learn, and improve.

More skill equals more fun. This Better Riding series is brought to you in association with Honda Motorcycles UK – a program of self-help videos as well as written content packed full of tips, advice and simple-but-useful exercises designed to help motorcycle riders of all experiences or ability to get more from their riding. It provides expert information and practice drills that help increase rider confidence and machine control skills that supplement traditional post-test training techniques.

You can find more of Mark and his riding advice at MotorbikeCoach.com

The sky is blue, but the road is wet. Is this rider overconfident with their lean angle?

The Joe Effect: When Confidence Meets Reality

Let’s start with a real-life story. There once was a rider called Joe, a rider who entered a corner avoidance drill with sky-high confidence only to score 20 out of 100. “He was gutted,” Mark recalls, “but for me, that was perfect.” Why? Because Joe had just crossed a critical threshold in learning: from unconscious incompetence to conscious incompetence. In other words, he realised he wasn’t as skilled as he thought and that opened the door to real improvement.

This is a textbook example of illusory superiority, a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate their abilities. It’s common among riders who haven’t had their skills objectively assessed. “Confidence often outpaces competence,” Mark explains, “and that’s where the danger lies.”

The Dunning-Kruger model

The Dunning-Kruger Curve of Motorcycling

Nobel prize winning psychologists, David Dunning and Justin Kruger founded the Dunning-Kruger effect, a model that shows how people with low ability often have inflated confidence. As experience grows, confidence dips before rising again with mastery. “I see this curve play out every day,” Mark says. “Some riders come to me with more confidence than I have, and I’ve been doing this for decades.”

The takeaway? Experience doesn’t always equal expertise, and without proper feedback, riders may never realise how much they still have to learn.

Why Road Riders Need More Skill Than They Think

Statistics reveal a sobering truth: 50% of motorcycle crashes are single-vehicle incidents. That means riders are losing control without any external interference — no cars, no pedestrians, just poor reactions and low skill ceilings. “It can be a tiny trigger,” Mark warns, “a patch of gravel, an oncoming car, or a moment of target fixation.”

The other 50% of crashes involve other vehicles, where training can also make a critical difference. “When you receive a surprise on the road,” Mark says, “you drop to the level of your training - not your confidence.”

Who knew Charles Darwin rode a Honda? Courtesy of AI, he does now!

Licence Training Is Just the Beginning

Most riders receive around 20 hours of training to get their licence. But Mark compares this to aviation: “You wouldn’t call yourself a pilot after 20 hours. Why treat riding differently?”

Mastery takes time, often thousands of hours. While not every rider needs to hit the mythical 10,000-hour mark, Mark has seen significant improvement in riders with just 1,500 to 2,000 hours of focused practice. “It takes work,” he says. “Skill, time, money, energy, discipline. There’s no quick fix.”

Why Public Roads Aren’t Training Grounds

While roadcraft is essential, public roads aren’t ideal for skill development. “It’s like trying to learn to skydive in a cyclone,” Mark jokes. Controlled environments — like training ranges or racetracks — offer space to make mistakes safely.

And yes, racetracks aren’t just for racers. “Ignore the critics,” Mark says. “Track-based training is about learning limits with low risk and lots of feedback. No traffic, no curbs, no trees — just space to improve.”

Bennetts offers track days for BikeSocial members, with extra novice sessions and classroom support. Riders can enjoy their bikes in a risk-free environment, often for the first time.

The Role of Coaching and Flow

A good coach does more than correct your line or body position. They read your attitude, risk profile, and learning style. “That’s where real growth happens,” Mark explains.

He introduces the concept of flow, coined by psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi - a state where challenge and skill align perfectly. “It’s the sweet spot between boredom and anxiety,” Mark says. His training system uses incremental 5% challenges to push riders just beyond their comfort zone, making new skills intuitive over time.

Mindfulness and Self-Evaluation

Mark encourages riders to adopt a routine of mindful riding - evaluating their throttle control, body position, and lane placement after each ride. “Take pride in your ride,” he says. “Critique yourself. It’s just knowledge — another piece of the riding puzzle.”

Even elite racers like Valentino Rossi have rider coaches. “They don’t say, ‘I’m the best, I don’t need coaching.’ They’re always learning.” 

Whether you’ve been riding for two weeks or 52 years, there’s always room to improve. Cognitive bias is a hidden barrier — but with awareness, training, and the right mindset, you can overcome it. As Mark puts it: “Knowledge is power. And in this case, it’s also safety.”

Why not commentate to yourself on your next ride – highlight the potential hazards and what your responses are to avoid possible danger. Or, if you have an action camera (here’s a link to our reviews of the most recent 14 options), record your ride and review it afterwards looking at possible areas to improve. And if you’re not sure then ask us over at BikeClub or on our private Facebook Group. 

Striving to improve is part of human nature. Whether it’s a passion, a hobby, or even your profession, there’s always a drive to get better. In motorcycling, that pursuit of progress can be the difference between a good ride and a great one - or even between a close call and a safe arrival.

Spotting the oil patch, dodging the pothole, reacting to the unexpected, those moments test the skills you've practiced. And when they pay off, you know the time spent training was worth it. We all want to ride better. And riding better means riding safer.

Better Riding is supported by Honda Motorcycles UK as part of their commitment to rider safety and their goal of achieving zero traffic fatalities involving Honda mobility products by 2050.